Everyone plans for the Q4 surge — few plan for the January drop-off.
After the holidays, order volumes sink, labor costs remain elevated, and productivity often plummets because teams are mentally and physically drained. While the rest of the industry coasts into the new year, high-performing distribution centers treat January as a strategic reset.
The slowdown is not a threat — it’s a window of opportunity.
This article shows how to use January to:
Across most warehouse operations — retail, grocery, and e-commerce — January volume drops 15–35% compared to the final six weeks of Q4.
The symptoms are consistent:
But the deeper problem is loss of rhythm.
Peak season forces discipline — every minute matters. January removes urgency, and without intention, performance habits disappear.
Q4 rewards speed.
January rewards discipline.
Move KPIs from:
Cases-per-hour → Cost-per-case
Output volume → First-pass accuracy
Overtime → Lean staffing model
The highest ROI action in January is skill uplift:
A slowdown is the cheapest time to invest in your people.
January exposes what peak season hides.
Run 30-minute walk audits on:
Capture one improvement per shift and implement within 48 hours.
Small improvements compound into big gains when volumes return.
Nothing crushes engagement faster than:
Hiring aggressively Q4…
Cutting people aggressively Q1.
Instead of layoffs:
Reduce overtime
Rotate associates through skill development assignments
Redirect labor into cost-saving kaizen projects
When people feel secure, morale stays high — and turnover stays low.
January is where insight happens.
Analyze:
Feed that back into:
The slowdown becomes a strategic advantage.
Most companies underestimate how long it takes to get internal headcount back to a steady state.
A managed labor provider stabilizes:
Instead of letting January drift, managed labor ensures accountability continues.
| Focus Area | Action Item |
|---|---|
| People | Cross-train, assign mini leadership tasks |
| Process | Swap speed metrics for accuracy metrics |
| Planning | Audit dock flow and travel paths |
| Continuous Improvement | Track “1 win per shift” |
Print this and block 30 minutes daily to review progress.
January doesn’t slow you down — January prepares you for the year you’re about to build.
The DCs that win don’t wait for momentum. They make it.
Q1: How do I maintain productivity when volume drops?
Shift from throughput KPIs to efficiency KPIs — cost-per-case, accuracy, and labor utilization.
Q2: What should I focus on during January?
Cross-training, labor optimization, and eliminating waste revealed during the peak rush.
Q3: How does managed labor help during slowdowns?
It stabilizes output, keeps costs predictable, and prevents turnover whiplash.
Q4: What’s the biggest mistake warehouses make in January?
Letting urgency evaporate. January discipline = April profitability.
Q5: How do I justify labor cost when volume falls?
Show ROI through performance uplift: cross-training + efficiency projects reduce CPC long term.
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