Just a few weeks ago, the 2026 import peak appeared to be winding down.
Now it may be reaching its high point.
The National Retail Federation’s latest Global Port Tracker forecast projects that major U.S. container ports will handle approximately 2.31 million TEUs in September, up 9.6% from September 2025. If the forecast holds, September will edge out July as the busiest import month of 2026.
That’s a significant change from expectations just one month earlier, when September imports were forecast at only 2.16 million TEUs and retailers appeared to have already completed much of their peak-season importing.
For distribution centers, the important question isn’t simply how many containers arrive at U.S. ports.
It’s what happens to that freight next.
Because port volume eventually becomes warehouse workload.
And when freight arrives later, faster or differently than anticipated, distribution centers still have to unload it, receive it, move it, store it and keep the rest of the operation running.
The 2026 import peak moved
Peak season has become increasingly difficult to define.
Historically, retailers and distributors could anticipate a relatively predictable increase in imports ahead of the holiday season. But tariffs, weather, transportation disruptions, changing sourcing strategies and consumer demand have made freight patterns increasingly fluid.
That has been particularly visible this year.
In early August, the National Retail Federation said the year’s import peak was likely winding down. Retailers had pulled significant inventory forward earlier in the year amid uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and May appeared likely to remain the busiest import month of 2026.
Then the forecast changed.
By September 9, NRF and Hackett Associates were projecting September volume of approximately 2.31 million TEUs — about 150,000 TEUs higher than the previous month’s September forecast.
The reasons include vessel delays related to weather in China, routing changes associated with the Panama Canal and continued consumer demand despite tariffs, inflation and higher fuel prices.
The bigger lesson for distribution operators is straightforward:
Freight does not always arrive according to the labor plan.
An import surge eventually becomes a distribution center capacity problem
Container statistics can sound distant from day-to-day warehouse operations.
They aren’t.
Imported merchandise moving through U.S. ports eventually enters the domestic distribution network. Containers and trailers arrive at facilities. Freight has to be unloaded. Pallets and cases have to be received. Inventory has to be staged, checked, moved and put away.
At the same time, the distribution center’s other responsibilities don’t stop.
Orders still need to be fulfilled.
Replenishment still has to happen.
Outbound trailers still have departure times.
Customers still have service-level expectations.
When inbound volume exceeds the assumptions used to build the labor plan, something has to absorb the difference.
That can mean overtime.
It can mean temporary labor.
It can mean pulling associates from other functions.
It can mean trailers waiting at the dock.
And in facilities that are already operating close to capacity, it can create congestion that spreads far beyond receiving.
The real challenge isn’t always headcount
When volume increases, the instinctive response is often to ask:
How many more people do we need?
That’s an understandable question. It isn’t always the best first question.
The better question is:
Where is operational capacity actually being lost?
A distribution center can have enough people on paper and still struggle with throughput.
Inbound trailers may take too long to unload. Dock scheduling may create concentrated bursts of activity. Productivity may vary dramatically between shifts. Supervisors may spend too much time solving staffing problems instead of managing execution. Associates may be moved between departments whenever one area falls behind, creating another bottleneck somewhere else.
Adding labor without identifying those constraints can simply add cost.
Effective peak-season planning requires understanding the relationship between volume, productivity and labor capacity.
For an inbound operation, that might mean examining:
- expected cases, pallets or floor-loaded freight
- trailer and container arrival patterns
- unload productivity by freight type
- receiving and dock-door capacity
- labor hours available by shift
- variability between average and peak days
- support requirements such as palletization, sorting or staging
- downstream receiving and put-away capacity
The objective isn’t merely to put more people inside the building.
It’s to create enough productive capacity to keep freight moving.
Labor capacity has not expanded at the same pace as every freight surge
The latest employment data adds another dimension to the issue.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment across the broader transportation and warehousing sector changed relatively little in August. Within warehousing and storage specifically, seasonally adjusted employment declined slightly from approximately 1.840 million workers in July to 1.837 million in August.
That doesn’t mean September’s import increase will automatically create a labor shortage.
But it does illustrate the operating environment distribution leaders are managing: freight volumes can change rapidly while the available labor infrastructure does not necessarily change with them.
A 9.6% year-over-year increase in September import volume does not produce a 9.6% increase in trained warehouse associates.
That difference has to be managed operationally.
Peak labor planning should be built for variability, not a perfect forecast
Perhaps the most useful lesson from this year’s shifting import forecast is that distribution operations cannot depend on one volume projection being exactly right.
In August, September looked relatively manageable.
A month later, it could become the busiest import month of the year.
That’s not a failure of forecasting. It’s the reality of modern supply chains.
Distribution centers therefore need labor strategies that can respond to a range of possible volumes, rather than a single expected number.
That means asking questions such as:
What does the operation require at expected volume?
What happens if volume increases 10%?
What happens if several high-volume days occur consecutively?
Which functions become constrained first?
How quickly can additional capacity be added?
And where can productivity improvements absorb volume before additional headcount becomes necessary?
Scenario planning like this creates a more resilient operation because the facility isn’t forced to reinvent its labor strategy every time the freight forecast changes.
Inbound execution matters even more as holiday activity increases
September’s unexpected import strength also arrives at an important point on the calendar.
Distribution networks are moving toward the holiday fulfillment season.
That creates the possibility that elevated inbound activity overlaps with increasing outbound demand.
Those two pressures compete for the same finite resources: labor, dock doors, equipment, staging space, supervisors and time.
A trailer that takes longer than expected to unload can occupy a door needed for the next appointment.
Receiving congestion can delay put-away.
Delayed put-away can affect inventory availability.
Associates reassigned to inbound can reduce capacity somewhere else.
Small productivity problems become much more consequential when the entire building is operating near its limits.
That is why unloading and receiving should not be treated as isolated activities.
They are the beginning of the distribution process.
When inbound freight flows efficiently, the rest of the operation has a better opportunity to do the same.
Managed warehouse labor can provide another capacity option
For some distribution centers, peak requirements can be handled internally.
For others, the economics of recruiting, hiring, training and maintaining enough permanent employees to cover temporary or unpredictable volume simply don’t make sense.
That is where managed warehouse labor can become another tool in the capacity strategy.
Rather than viewing outside labor solely as emergency staffing, distribution operators can identify specific functions — particularly repeatable, measurable activities such as unloading — where capacity can be added and performance managed separately.
A well-structured program should provide more than additional workers.
It should create accountability around execution, productivity, supervision and results.
At FHI, our teams support distribution and warehouse operations across the country, including inbound unloading and other labor-intensive warehouse functions. Our focus is helping operations create dependable capacity while maintaining visibility into productivity and performance.
Because when freight forecasts move, the warehouse still has to execute.
The forecast will change again. Your operation needs to be ready.
September’s projected import surge is another reminder that supply-chain plans are increasingly being made in an environment where tariffs, transportation conditions, weather and consumer behavior can change freight patterns quickly.
Distribution leaders can’t control when every container arrives.
They can’t control every disruption upstream.
But they can control how prepared their operations are when volume reaches the dock.
That means understanding productivity, identifying bottlenecks, building flexibility into the labor model and having a plan for adding capacity before the building becomes overwhelmed.
Peak season may not arrive exactly when expected.
The freight still has to move.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are U.S. imports increasing in September 2026?
The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates have pointed to several factors, including weather-related vessel delays in China, some rerouting associated with conditions affecting the Panama Canal, continued consumer demand and ongoing supply-chain uncertainty.
How does increased import volume affect distribution centers?
Higher import volume can translate into additional containers and trailers entering domestic distribution networks. That can increase demand for unloading, receiving, palletization, staging, put-away and warehouse labor, particularly when the volume was not included in the facility’s original labor forecast.
How can distribution centers prepare for unexpected volume increases?
Distribution centers can model multiple volume scenarios, measure productivity by function, identify likely bottlenecks, evaluate available labor hours and establish plans for adding flexible capacity before a surge occurs.
Can outsourced warehouse labor help during peak season?
Yes. Managed warehouse labor can provide additional capacity for defined warehouse functions without requiring a facility to permanently increase internal headcount. The most effective programs combine labor with onsite management, productivity measurement and operational accountability.
What warehouse activities does FHI support?
FHI provides managed warehouse labor and operational support for distribution environments, including inbound unloading and other labor-intensive warehouse functions. FHI works with distribution operations to improve execution, productivity and labor flexibility.
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